In a nationwide public opinion tracking poll conducted in late October by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association, the nation almost unanimously rejects the low royalty rate (of between zero and two percent), sweeties or handouts given to oil companies, and profit sharing agreement of the government with multinational Exxon/Mobile and other oil companies. People distrust government and politicians on oil development matters and on the industry as a whole and on the handling of proceeds arising out of it. They lack faith and confidence on government and politicians as a whole on the industry and are not hopeful that government will share the oil money with them. The poll finds overwhelmingly support (82%) for renegotiation of all contracts with all oil companies to reflect global industry standard prevailing rates on royalty, deduction of expenses, profit sharing, taxation, local content, and all other aspects of production agreement and sale of oil. Some respondents also express opposition to oil drilling fearing risks of damage to the environment. They say the miniscule financial rewards given to the country are not worth the risks of damage to the natural habitat.
With Guyana on the cusp of being the fourth largest producer of oil in the greater Latin American region, the findings of this poll underscore the fact that Guyanese are increasingly paying attention to the oil contract and the industry as a whole. Equally clear, as confirmed by this latest survey, is the people’s support for fair contract and family receipt of financial proceeds from oil.
The poll was conducted by Dr. Vishnu Bisram who has been involved in opinion surveys for almost thirty years in Guyana and elsewhere. The latest poll interviewed 740 likely voters at random to represent the demographics of the population (39 Indians, 30% Africans, 20% Mixed, 10% Amerindians, and 1% other ethnic groups). The findings have a margin of error of 4% using the confidence level of 95%. This means that percentage views on a question can vary by 4% in either direction (up or down).
The latest poll comes at a time when the country is preparing for general elections on March 2. A majority express doubts whether the elections will be free and fair and credible. The population seems tuned out on politics over the no confidence vote, voter registration, voters’ list and related matters.
The poll queried voters whether they are aware that Guyana will soon be producing oil, no one replied in the negative. This is a sharp spike in positive response to the same question two years ago in a similar NACTA poll when just about half of the population was familiar with Guyana’s oil potential. Four years ago, few paid attention to oil drilling and discovery. And last February, in a similar survey, only 35% showed interest in the oil industry saying they will not be beneficiaries and that the proceeds from oil will end up in the pockets of politicians. Since then, people are increasingly wising up to the financial proceeds from the oil and gas industry.
Asked whether they support cash transfer from oil revenues to (especially poor) families, a whopping 65% answered in the affirmative, 26% said no, with 9% not providing an answer. Those opposed to cash transfer feel the money should be used for developmental projects, skills training, and job creation rather than handouts. In general, respondents feel that it is the country’s money and that the people should share in it. However, many, among the poorer class in particular, are skeptical on whether they will get any of the oil money. They say there will be a lot of fraud and that “the politicians will full dey pockets” and leave them out.
Asked if they are economically better off today than under the PPP government prior to May 2015, 60% said no, 23% yes, and 17% about the same no response.
Almost every voter expressed some concern about uncontrollable crime, the state of the economy, increased corruption, handling of the oil industry, rising racism, among other issues. Some also said they are worried about a potential threat to democracy over the handling of constitutionally due elections, withdrawal of state advertisements to the media, and other matters. The poll findings show that a large majority of the nation is not pleased with the job performance of the government and handling of various issues including the oil industry. President (David Granger) is found to have a substantially higher approval rating (45% approve versus 44% who disapprove with 11% neutral or not offering a rating) than his government. The Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo continues to have soaring approval ratings (60% approve versus 30% who disapprove and 10% a neutral rating), suggesting if he were allowed to run for office again, he would easily defeat any opponent.
Asked to rate the job performance of the APNU+AFC coalition government, 7% said excellent, 14% good, 15% satisfactory, 19% poor, 40% Miserable or terrible, and 5% no response.
The poll also asked several other questions including on confidence in Gecom to hold credible elections, party and Presidential candidate support, and alliance politics, among others. The findings will be released in a subsequent report.
Do you support renegotiation of oil contract?
Yes : 82%
No : 5%
Not Sure : 13%
Do you support oil $ cash transfer to families?
Yes : 65%
No: 26%
Not Sure: 9%
Dr Vishnu Bisram