Mr. Harmon’s picture in a local paper wearing a t-shirt saying, “Demand 50% royalty,” seems to be clear support for the renegotiation of the oil and gas contract as any increase in the 2% paltry royalty we get now would require renegotiation. If Harmon stands solid, this changes the political dynamics in Guyana and spells trouble for the PPP’s Engine Room, which milked the Global Witness report to say the PNC sold out the country, that we stand to lose $US55 billion and the PPP will renegotiate the contract if they win. That was a promise made, promise not kept. Actually, the potential loss to Guyana would be greater than US$55 billion because the Minister of Natural Resources said we have close to an estimated 13 billion barrels of oil so far and this keeps increasing with every round of drilling. The Global Witness projection of a loss of US$55 billion was based on 8 billion barrels at US$65 a barrel. A more accurate projected loss would be US$98 billion based on 10 billion barrels at US$85 a barrel (about 49 years of Guyana’s budget expenditures at current levels), or a loss of US$128 billion on 13 billion barrels at US$85/barrel (64 years of Guyana’s budget expenditures).
Mr. Harmon’s call for a 50% royalty now sets an interesting stage. The Exxon Chief had said both the PPP and PNC promised during the election that the contracts will not be renegotiated. So Mr. Harmon must explain clearly if he and his PNC are now supporters of a better, fair deal for Guyana, as the SN, KN, OGGN (Oil and Gas Governance Network), TIGI, Fair Deal, and other loyal Guyanese have been advocating. We also need to hear from Mr. Harmon’s challengers where they stand on renegotiation and whether they also would wear the T-shirt. Mr. Patterson is getting ready to challenge the gas-to-shore project seeking full disclosure of information, and that’s a good thing for the national debate. Right now, the PNC is in disarray, having failed in its attempt to rig the 2020 election Burnham style, it has no message or platform beyond racial incitement, gives tepid support for vaccination that amounts to non-support, refuses to recognize a duly elected PPP Government, while the PPP basks in its multitudinous development projects all across the country.
If the Minister who signed the bad Exxon deal that sold out the national patrimony said he was told to sign the contract, who told him to sign? The PNC side has not said anything but the only two people who were above Mr. Trotman and could have hypothetically told Mr. Trotman to sign, would have been the President and Mr. Harmon. Mr. Harmon was the number 2 man in the Granger Government so we need Mr. Harmon to clear the air on this.
Notwithstanding the credibility of the messenger, Mr. Harmon’s new gamble calling for higher oil royalties might yet prove to be the message and platform the PNC needs to be relevant once again. The PNC, poised to remain in the Opposition benches for a long time, can still rescue itself by throwing somebody under the bus, apologize to the nation for giving away Guyana’s oil and gas, and commit to an ongoing fight for renegotiation. This will force the Government to move towards the renegotiation track, and this will be good for all Guyana. For the PNC, it’s not that you have sinned badly beyond redemption but how can you “go and sin no more.” If both the PPP and PNC keeps on holding the same position against renegotiation, it will be a slow build for the national cause seeking better benefits from oil for the Guyanese people with a long list of needs. If the PPP refuses to renegotiate and the PNC have the opposite position, there is a potential of an additional 45% Guyanese supporting renegotiation, and Exxon will not be able to resist such a mighty force. Mr. Harmon should know that the PNC’s silence on renegotiation does not mean Exxon or the USA would support them in future elections; they have shot themselves in the foot for the long term by their anti-democratic behavior. So Mr. Harmon’s and the PNC’s ongoing support for renegotiation can put the PPP in a pickle and change the tide for renegotiation. Will the PNC step up? What is there to lose?
Sincerely,
Dr. Jerry Jailall