Concerns from Aug 14, 2016:
Ralph Ramkarran, in his article in SN of August 7, 2016 ‘Guyana’s future as an oil producer’, estimates that Guyana can expect revenues of US$5.5 billion a year from the recent Liza oil discovery by ExxonMobil and partners. Ramkarran uses three variables to arrive at his figure: an oil price at US$ 80 a barrel, a daily production of 500,000 barrels, and a government share of 40%.
Based on my own general understanding, this estimate is extremely optimistic because the numbers he uses are either highly speculative or, in one case, likely inaccurate. That said, as any other Guyanese, I hope Ramkaran’s estimate turns out to be correct. Maybe he knows something we don’t. But regrettably, revenues are likely to be more modest if we use more plausible numbers and formulas.
