The current modus operandi in the incoming Guyanese oil industry will affect how the poor and the working class respond to it. Today across Guyana, this oil industry is seen as an elite project. It is seen by the population as those guys in suits who jets off to Houston to strike deal for themselves; it is seen as the guys who populate the Georgetown cocktail circuits milking another deal for themselves; it is seen as the usual suspects from the privileged class who populate the political and economic one percent (at the best 750 Guyanese) who appears to be walking away with the hog’s share of the new streams of income that belong to all Guyanese. The question on the minds of many single mothers and housewives remains – what is in it for me and my children and my family?
The remaining 750,000 Guyanese who exist financially below this 1 percent, (most of whom can be classified as the working class), similar to the yellow vest population of France or the rural workers of the USA who voted for Trump, are swiftly coming to the conclusion that this oil will bring them very little. When they ask the question what is in it for me today, the straight answer that any analyst, can provide is – VERY LITTLE DIRECTLY WILL FLOW INTO YOUR POCKETS.
This situation brings out the stark reality that has plagued the nation for generations that breach between the “HAVE” and the “HAVE-NOT”. This sense of inequality in Guyana has never been worse and the perception is that these oil investments will only make it worse for the working class. People are not stupid, they see what has happened in Venezuela, which sits on top of the world’s largest deposit of oil, yet people there have no food. If it happened there, it can happen here too. But why is this gap widening and what has this oil industry got to do with it?
Firstly, Team Granger with their heavy doses of policy paralysis, played a major role in setting the scene to widen this disparity between the two groups. Take for example the re-negotiation process on the oil agreement. There was no scope for the social engineering of the revenue to better impact a wider cross section of Guyanese. When the mathematics is done, Guyana will have no more than 8% of the revenue from these oil investments in the first 4 years. Without a plan, all of this money will be in the hands of politicians who do not have a history of doing what is best for the Guyanese people. For example, when the US$18 million sign-on bonus was provided, it was hidden from the people. Why would you hide information that should be shared with the people?
But when one reflects on the situation at ground zero, they can understand why these people at the bottom feel this way against the 1 percent on top of them. This is a recipe for social implosion. The man in the street wants, like everyone else, a life of dignity with a steady stream of income after a fair day’s work. For too many in Guyana, this is reality is floating away from them. Therefore we must expect them to do exactly what the yellow vest in France is doing. This can even go further and I am speaking directly to the question of extremism. Such situations helps no one. But we must not discount the fact that desperate people usually do desperate things to protect their class interest and those with little to lose always take the most extremist of positions.
It is unfortunate that Team Granger was not emotionally intelligent enough to be better aware of the plight of the people. These people are not looking for empty platitudes like the illusionary “good life”; they want answers to the tough questions especially the one that ask – what is in it for me and my family? So hosting another oil conference or attending another oil exposition is irrelevant to the conversation around the dinner tables of most Guyanese. The members of the proletariat are focused on the fact that their jobs are evaporating, and their personal financial risks are escalating.
So, as far as the oil industry goes, the man in the street is seeing it as exclusionary, as some sort of helicopter taking off with all their best goods and flying away to another land far away. This reality has potential consequences. In such a situation, any responsible government must have adequate emotional common sense to create the framework to engage, re-connect and collaborate with the people to ensure some of these risks are mitigated and that some dollars are reserve exclusively for the poor and the working class.
That is why I put forward this proposal that 20% of the oil earnings payable, should be reserved as cash vouchers allocated directly to all the people who are registered on the GRA and NIS systems (note I said registered because some people earn too little to pay taxes and national insurance). These cash vouchers should only fund the following to prevent reckless pressure on inflation – deposits to an escrow savings account that can only be tapped to buy new homes, pay the mortgages, repair to the homes, education expenses, healthcare expenses, purchase of hybrid and green motor cars, motor cycles or bicycles or boat engines, purchase of solar panels, and even purchase of shares in publicly traded companies. The idea is that this oil money must work for all Guyanese families not just the 1 percent atop the pile.
The remaining 80% of the cash should be split evenly between the Sovereignty Wealth Fund and the mega infrastructure projects as identified in a National Development Strategy (NDS) similar to the one developed with the help of the Carter Center in 1994. This NDS shall be developed jointly by the Government, the opposition and civil society. This NDS shall be committed to by law so that if there is a change of government, it cannot be de-funded because of partisan political reasons. I am speak about projects like the Amaila Hydro Project which will bring low cost and reliable electricity, the paving or railing of the transportation link between Linden and Lethem which will connect to a newly built Deep Water Port to facilitate more Brazilian containers destined for the world, the Oil Refinery which will create hundreds of new jobs to refine Guyanese oil for the Guyanese and CARICOM markets and so on.
With more than 60% of the population under 40 years of age, it is hoped those who are reading this publication, properly understand the consequences for pretending it is business as usual. For Guyana’s sake I am hoping for good sense to prevail on all fronts.
Sase Singh, M.Sc. – Finance, ACCA